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Pivot Q2 “Crushes It,” Initiates Dividend

Pivot “just crushes it,” analyst Ralph Garcea said in an Aug. 24 note.

The California-based company, founded by legendary former Apple CEO and Pepsi president John Sculley, reported second-quarter revenues of $358 million, which was up 18.2 per cent compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) came in at $9.9 million, a 29.1-per-cent increase from the same time last year. Gross profit of $45.3 million was up 18.6 per cent, or $7.1 million compared to the same quarter in 2014, and up 40.7 per cent, or $13.1 million, from the first quarter of 2015.

“We could not have asked for a better ‘bounce-back’ quarter after a delay-plagued first quarter,” Mr. Garcea said.

The company said growth in the quarter was driven mostly by a number of larger deals at existing customers, “in part a reflection of catch up on previously delayed investment,” according to Pivot chief executive Warren Barnes.

“As a consequence of our continued solid progress, we are pleased to declare our first ever quarterly common dividend,” Mr. Barnes said.

The quarterly dividend is for $0.0075 per share for the quarter, which equates to three cents per share annually.

Pivot, a value-added reseller of technological hardware such as servers and storage devices, has seen its stock doubled over the past year (see one-year chart below) and increase 188 per cent so far this year.

It’s a favourite of Jason Donville, president and CEO, Donville Kent Asset Management, who owns it personally and in the fund. During an appearance on BNN in May, Mr. Donville said the company was inexpensive with a strong return on equity. He said the software it offers and regions it’s in also makes it interesting compared to other tech stocks.


The Road Back for General Motors Stock

Odlum Brown is revving up its interest in General Motors Co. (GM-N), one of the world’s largest auto makers, saying the company has significantly improved its balance sheet and is making better cars.

What’s more, the stock is inexpensive right now, according to analyst Stephen Boland. He has a “buy” recommendation and $43 (U.S.) target price on GM stock, which equates to about 8.5 times estimated 2016 earnings per share. His target price is about 50 per cent above where the stock is now trading at $29 on the NYSE.

“General Motors is a far better company today than it once was,” said Mr. Boland in an Aug. 27 note titled, The General is Back. “Important improvements have been made to the underlying business and further enhancements are ongoing.”

Mr. Boland lists five reasons to like GM including; cuts  to its cost structure, a strong balance sheet (and better credit rating as a result), better products, benefits from a steadily recovering U.S. economy and cheap valuation.

“The valuation multiple is low and we do not think the stock price reflects GM’s significantly improved prospects,” Mr. Boland said.

There are other reasons to like GM too. For example, since its losses prior to declaring bankruptcy in 2009, GM has significant tax assets, Mr. Boland noted, which means they won’t likely have to pay taxes in the U.S. “until at least 2018.”

Another potential bonus for investors is that GM plans to invest heavily in product development.

“In the past, the company would cut investments when times were tough, resulting in disruptions to product development.”

GM has also reduced its U.S. dealership network, “which is driving more sales and better profitability per dealer, which in turn is allowing dealers to invest in more attractive showrooms,” Mr. Boland said. The vehicle maker also has “ample opportunity” to further boost profit margins.

Among 20 analysts that cover GM, 10 have a “buy,” nine say “hold,” and one “sell,” according to Thomson Reuters. The analyst consensus price target for General Motors Co over the next year is $39.19. (See one-year GM chart below).


Has the Price of Gold Finally Stopped Falling?

The price of bullion has been on a downward spiral since hitting a record above $1,900 (U.S.) per ounce in 2011, closing around $1,160 on Friday. It dropped to $1,080 in mid-July, its lowest level since 2010. Some forecasters expected gold to gain momentum during that time, due in part to the latest Greek financial crisis.

“The price of gold has been undermined this year by the strength of the dollar and rising bond yields as the first hike in U.S. interest rates approaches,” Capital Economics analyst Simona Gambarini said in an Aug. 21 note, believing the July selloff was “overdone.”

Capital Economics is calling for “one more dip” from current prices, as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares for an interest rate hike as early as next month. Gambarini believes the gold market has adjusted to the prospect that the Fed will start to raise rates by at lest the end of the year, “so any weakness dependent on the precise month should be short-lived.”

“We believe that demand and supply fundamentals remain solid and expect prices to recover further once markets have digested the first Fed move.” Capital Economics forecasts gold will reach $1,200 by the end of 2015 and $1,400 in 2016.

 

On Aug. 18, Citi lowered its average gold price forecasts for this year and next, citing weak macro economic conditions. The bank now forecasts gold prices to average $1,090 per ounce in the third quarter of this year, slipping further into the fourth quarter to $1,050. It’s calling for gold to reach an annual average price this year of $1,140 and $1,050 in 2016.

That followed a move by HSBC, which lowered its 2015 average annual price forecast on July 27 to $1,160 from $1,234 and to $1,205 from $1,275 in 2016. HSBC warned gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term and may move “within striking distance of $1,000” before recovering. It cited the Fed tightening, U.S. dollar strength, low global inflationary pressure and weak gold demand from India and China, two of the largest consumers of the metal.


Yellow Pages Set to Gain from Digital Shift

Analysts have high hopes for Yellow Pages Ltd (Y.TO) as the Montreal-based company, once best known for its thick telephone directory, continues its aggressive shift towards digital media.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Aravinda Galappatthige recently reiterated his “buy” on the stock and $28 price target, which is about 60 per cent above where the stock is now trading around $18. The analyst consensus price target over the next year is $26.50.

“Management indicated [in a recent presentation] that, assuming no acquisitions or change in trajectory, they expect to be debt free by 2018,” Mr. Galappatthige said in an Aug. 13 note. “This stood out to us as it represents a greater degree of free cash flow post 2015 than we anticipated.”

Mr. Galappatthige also pointed to falling debt levels at the company, more stable EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and higher revenues at its growing digital division as reasons to be bullish on the stock.

“Management has been quite clear that it can meet its margin guidance of low 30 per cent levels and has indicated that it does not expect to breach the 30 per cent margin even on a quarterly basis,” he said. “This backs up our view that the steep EBITDA declines we are seeing today (25 per cent in Q2) would be a thing of the past.”

Yellow Pages, which now includes a range of digital brands such as YellowPages.ca and canada411.ca, completed a restructuring in late 2012 and under new management has a so-called “return to growth” plan. That includes increasing its customer base through digital platforms and better brand recognition.

The company changed its name back to Yellow Pages earlier this year, from Yellow Media. In June, it announced a deal to buy home-buying platform ComFree/DuProprio Network, as part of its “digital transformation.”

Yellow Pages is forecasting that 80 per cent of revenues will be digital by 2018. Digital revenues accounted for $116.4-million or 57 per cent of the company’s revenues in the second quarter, while print revenue fell 21.3 per cent to $88.3-million. Overall revenue was down 7.2 per cent to $204.8-million compared to a year earlier.


Still Time to Get On Board New Flyer Industries

CIBC World Markets says investors should be “getting on the bus” with New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI.TO), raising its target and recommendation based on higher margins, better free cash flow and improving market fundamentals. Record second-quarter results also help, according to analyst Kevin Chiang, who upgraded New Flyer to “sector outperformer” from “sector performer” and raised his target price to $19.50 from $16.50. “Fundamentals for bus demand are improving due to rising U.S. state/municipal tax revenue, growing bus ridership numbers (reflecting the cost advantage of taking bus transit versus driving and modestly declining unemployment rate), and public transit being a more green option,” said Mr. Chiang of the Winnipegbased company, which is the largest North American manufacturer of heavy-duty transit buses supplying transit authorities in Canada and the U.S. “New Flyer is well positioned to take advantage of the improving heavy duty bus fundamentals given its leading market share in both bus manufacturing and aftermarket services.” New Flyer shares hit a record high of $18.10 on Aug. 7, the day after the company reported record quarterly consolidated adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $39.2 million, an increase of 45.3 per cent compared to the same period last year. That was well ahed of CIBC’s estimate of $32 million and consensus of $31 million. Among five analysts that cover the stock, three have a “buy” recommendation and two have a “hold,” according to Thomson Reuters. The analyst consensus price target over the next year is $17.84. New Flyer is President’s Club pick. We have roughly tripled our money on this stock in three years and believe it’s still a buy for modest, yet safer gains. At current prices the stock yields 3.7 per cent, but the market clearly expect that dividend to rise over time. CIBC agrees: “Even with the strong run-up in the share price over the past five weeks (up 12 per cent), we believe second quarter results are a reaffirmation of the improving margin and FCF (free cash flow) profile at New Flyer,” Mr. Chiang said.


Cineplex Stock Steps Back into the Spotlight

Analyst Adam Shine increased his target by $2 to $52, seeing “upside” to his recent forecast. He also    upgraded the stock to “outperform” (similar to “buy”) from “sector outperform” (similar to “hold”).

Mr. Shine said the third quarter is “poised to deliver outperformance for the first time in eight quarters,” pointing to the release of movies such as Minions and Ant-Man. “We look for the stock to regain positive momentum.”

Cineplex stock has been relatively flat in recent months, but is up 25 per cent over the past year, currently trading around $48.50. That’s slightly above the analyst consensus price target over the next year of $49.64.

Among 12 analysts that cover Cineplex, four have a “buy” and eight have a “hold” recommendation, according to Thomson Reuters.

Mr. Shine said his upgrade came sooner than expected “given the slightly better second quarter and more confidence that the third-quarter box office won’t disappoint.”

He trimmed his second-quarter growth assumption for Cineplex’s box office revenues to 1.5 per cent from 9.5 per cent in mid June, following a few disappointing  movie releases.

Cineplex Inc. is the largest motion picture exhibitor in Canada, with more than two-thirds market share. That includes 162 theatres and 1,652 screens.

Mr. Shine acknowledged that the movie-theatre business is facing pressure from streaming content and changing consumer habits.

“At some point, box office and concession growth will surely slow,” he said. “We don’t see that in the very short term, but management isn’t just sitting around.”

He noted Cineplex is building up its media operations and embarks on its rollout of “The Rec Room” concept, starting in Edmonton. The venues will  includes food, games and entertainment ranging from comedians and bands to live feeds of major sporting events. “Cineplex believes that these and other initiatives, including media-related acquisitions, will be able to drive sustainable growth over coming years,” Mr. Shine said.


Couche-Tard Consolidation Trend Said to Continue

Shares of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-B.TO) hit an all-time high this week and analysts are hiking their targets after Canada’s largest convenience store operator reported higher profits and increased its dividend. The owner of Mac’s and Couche-Tard convenience stores in Canada and Circle K stores in U.S. will increase its dividend by 22 per cent next month to 5.5 cents.

CIBC World Market analyst Perry Caicco said Couche-Tard remains a top pick “regardless of possible overall sector multiple compression.” In a note, he said the company has “a stable core of assets, an improving and powerful balance sheet, and a laser focus on affordable (i.e. lower-multiple) acquisitions coupled with reliable capture of synergies.” He raised his target to $64, up from $55 and kept his “sector outperformer” rating.

Among 13 analysts that cover the stock, 10 have a “buy” and three have a “hold” recommendation. The analyst consensus price target over the next year is $59.09. The stock hit an all-time high of $58 on Thursday and is up 20 per cent so far this year. It has almost doubled over the past year.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Peter Sklar raised his target on Couche-Tard to $62 from $57. That’s even though the company missed his earnings estimates.

“Notwithstanding the earnings miss, we found that there were several positive developments during the quarter including strong organic growth, particularly in U.S. same-store merchandise sales and fuel volume, as well as positive commentary on continued realization of synergies,” he said in a note.

He sees the company continue to make “valuecreating acquisitions” across North America and Europe.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Derek Dley says the convenience-store chain is well positioned to pursue further acquisitions. “We continue to believe Couche-Tard has a robust pipeline for acquisitive growth as the integrated oil and gas producers in Europe begin to shed their downstream (retail) assets, in a similar fashion to what we have witnessed in the U.S. over the last 10 years,” he said in a report.

Couche-Tard CEO Brian Hannasch told investors recently the company is looking at added more brands to its stores, including potentially financial services and payment products.


CRH Medical Diagnosis Looking Good for Investors

The growth prognosis appears positive for investors in CRH Medical Corp. (CRH.TO), a Vancouver-based company with products and services that help doctors treat gastrointestinal (GI) diseases. The stock is up about 140 per cent so far this year and all three analysts that cover it have a “buy” rating, with a consensus of $6.63, which is about 40 per cent above where it’s currently trading, around $4.80. Bloom Burton initiated coverage of CRH Medical in June with a “buy” rating and $5.50 target. Analyst David Martin said his financial model and valuation is conservative, and doesn’t include additional acquisitions. “With 33 per cent expected upside to our ‘no M&A’ target, and an industry that is ripe for consolidation, we believe investors buying CRH stock at current levels have limited downside risk, with a good opportunity to realize additional value through future acquisitions,” Mr. Martin said in a note. He said an acquisition that adds $10 million annually to the company’s GI anesthesia services revenues starting in 2016, would boost his valuation to about $6.30 per share. “If similar transactions are modelled each year, the model valuation would increase to $12.40 per share (paying 2.9x revenues; funding 60 per cent debt:40 per cent equity).” Clarus Securities analyst David Novak has a “buy” and $5.50 target on CRH Medical, believing the “future is bright” for the company, which also offers anesthesia services. The company was “unjustifiably” associated with a recent correction in healthcare stocks, Mr. Novak said, while also forecasting acquisitions to come possibly later this year. “We note that CRH’s value proposition remains highly attractive even upon the removal of these assumptions,” he said in a recent note. “We suggest that investors can comfortably justify an investment based on CRH’s current operations, which remain discounted at today’s valuation, leaving significant upside in the form of highly probably future acquisitions.” Beacon Securities analyst Doug Cooper has a $6 target on CRH. “We are firm believers in the aging demographic profile in the western world and the positive impact it will have on the medical service industry. In particular for CRH, that demographic driven the Baby Boom population is coming right into the “sweet spot” for colon cancer screening,” Mr. Cooper noted.



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